Cycling Activity vs. National Gas Prices

Looks like the number of posts per day on the ElmCityCycling listserv, a forum for making New Haven more accommodating to bicyclists and pedestrians, is highly correlated with the national price of unleaded gasoline (click on chart to enlarge). Who would have thought?

With gasoline predicted to hit $6-10 per gallon as soon as a few months from now, the number of nonmotorized trips to work in New Haven is only likely to continue to increase. As a relatively flat and compact city, Downtown New Haven is already perfect for bicycling and walking, as evidenced by the fact that the city has one of the highest percentages of bicycle commuters in the United States (1.8%, versus 1.2% in Boston, 0.9% in Providence, 0.6% in New York City, 0.4% in Hartford, 0.1% in Bridgeport and 0.0% in Waterbury, according to the Census Bureau's 2006 ACS). During rush hour, there are already occasional bicycle "traffic jams" on the popular Orange Street bicycle lane. New Haven was also recently named one of the 20 most walkable cities in the United States.

However, improvements to the city's bicycle-friendliness are needed before the average area resident will choose to ride to work, or even use his or her bicycle for short trips (e.g., a 4-block run to the corner store). Considering that bicycles are already widely-owned (and very inexpensive), the most frequently given reasons why Connecticut residents don't bicycle more often - infrastructure and safety - are fairly easy to solve. According to numerous studies, infrastructure such as bicycle parking, bike-friendly street design, multi-use greenways like the Farmington Canal Trail and accessibility at train stations raise land values by an amount much greater than the investment put into them (in part because they tend to calm traffic). Reckless and high-speed driving and driver education can be addressed through community-wide "safe streets" efforts and traffic enforcement, and through measures such as anti-dooring ordinances like those found in Chicago.

With the average American family devoting 20% or more of their annual spending towards automobile expenses - more than on health care, education, or food, farmers switching from tractors to pack mules, gasoline prices continuing to skyrocket, and of course, global warming (if everyone who lives within 5 miles of their workplace were to cycle to work just one day a week, nearly 5 million tons of global warming pollution would be saved every year, the equivalent of taking about a million cars off the road, not to mention that the energy required to manufacture a new car is 100+ times that of a new bicycle), American cities will likely need to start taking a Copenhagen-like approach as soon as possible. New York City is already heading that direction, with the hiring of Jan Gehl, Copenhagen's world-renowned planner and urbanist. By conservative estimates, the number of bicycle trips in New York has already increased by 50-75% in the past 10 years, even without major infrastructure improvements. Transit ridership is increasing rapidly as well, on systems all across the United States including those that serve Downtown New Haven.

In Connecticut, promoting bicycling and walking will most likely require a shift in funding priorities. According to the Tri-State Transportation Campaign, more than 60% of 2007-2010 highway funding is currently used to expand and build new highways (even as existing ones crumble), whereas less than 1% of the overall transportation budget is spent on bicycle and pedestrian projects (see PDF report here). If Connecticut's 169 cities and town centers are to compete in the 21st century, that equation needs to flip.

Update 5/23/08: According to this graph, bicycle sales are up too. NY Times factoid of the day: "Every one-cent increase in gasoline prices means Americans pay $1.42 billion more a year for gas, according to Stephen P. Brown, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Nearly two-thirds of that goes to foreign producers." It is any surprise that we are $10,000,000,000,000 in debt?

Update 6/15/08: Chart updated - both gas prices and ECC listserv posts have risen more quickly than anticipated. Also, a couple of local news items today: according to a story in today's Hartford Courant, higher gas prices are now reshaping hiring practices. Not only have studies shown that commuters who walk or bike to work at least once per week more productive (because they are healthier), they are apparently becoming attractive to companies in other ways as well. Also today, an article in the New Haven Register talks about various options that commuters are turning to in order to reduce their gasoline use:

Probably the most ambitious rider at Friday’s event was Alienne Morrione of Bridgeport who bicycles 30 minutes from her home to the Metro-North train there. After the 25-minute trip to New Haven, she cycles to the Yale Medical School, where she works in the brain tumor center. Morrione, 31, a dedicated rider, has sometimes been blocked from peak-travel times on Metro-North, so she cycles almost two hours between the cities... “As a single mom, it’s the greatest way to save money,” Morrione said as she pedaled away to work.

And in the article, an interesting statistic on commuting mode share to Downtown New Haven's largest employer:

"Holly Parker, director of Sustainable Transportation Systems at Yale, said in a survey taken last November, she found that 44 percent of faculty, staff and graduate students, over 10,000 workers, drive alone to reach the Yale campus.... But this means that more than half already, even without the added incentive of rising gas costs, were walking (23 percent), taking public transportation (19 percent), sharing a ride (6 percent), bicycling (5 percent) or telecommuting (3 percent.) She is eager to compare figures from the second survey set for the fall."